Tag Archives: planning

Controlling the Future

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“We have the forecast,” Samuel said. “All on a spreadsheet. We know what we need to sell by the end of this quarter.”

I looked up, smiled. “Do you mean, you know what you hope for? Do you mean, based on your explanation for the shortfall last quarter? Or is this just a guess?”

“Well, none of those. It’s just what we believe the CEO would be happy with,” Samuel explained.

“It’s nice to have an agreed upon target,” I surmised, “but do you think it will just happen from the number on the sheet or are you going to make it happen? Do you think you have the power to intervene on what will happen?”

“We are going to try,” Samuel looked determined.

“What will happen, will happen,” I replied. “Are you prepared to intervene in what will happen?”

“I told you, we will put in our best effort.”

“And, what if your current best effort isn’t good enough? Are you prepared? Look, your forecast is a target, not a predictor. We don’t know what is going to happen, nor do we control it. We don’t control what customers do. We don’t control what our competitors do. We don’t control how our supply chain performs. The only thing we can do is to prepare for whatever may happen. So, when it does, and it will, we are prepared. What does that preparation look like?”

Do What Is Expected

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Gillian had a smile on her face. “I think I finally have the right team. Everything is working smoothly. And every team member has the competence to do what it is expected. What more could I want?”

“Dangerous to ask me an open-ended question,” I replied. “Do you feel prepared? Do they have the skills? Not to do what is expected, but to grapple with the unexpected?”

Be Prepared

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“My boss tells me I need to have a plan for next year,” Joseph complained. “I don’t know why he thinks it is so important. All the plans we have ever published are out of date within 60 days. Maybe some targets are still in place to mark progress, but the rest of it gets chucked.”

“You are correct,” I replied. “And so is your boss. The plan is just a work product of a process. And, it’s the process that is critical, not the work product.”

“So, we sit down and imagine what things we could tackle, what problems might come up,” he said. “In the course of events, some things come true and some don’t. What’s the point? When they happen, if they happen, we will just deal with it.”

“What if you are not prepared to deal with it?” I nodded. “One characteristic of competence is the ability to constructively imagine into the future, anticipate those opportunities that could be leveraged, identify things that could go wrong, the forces that might work against you. And, be prepared. The competent housepainter carries extra paint brushes. The competent plumber carries extra tools and common supplies, even it’s not on the work order. The competent teacher steps into the classroom with a lesson plan. The competent driver starts out with a full tank of gas, even if the trip is only 100 miles. The competent manager builds a team with capacity and cross training.”

“When I was a kid in the Boy Scouts, our motto was Be Prepared. Do you mean like that?” Joseph asked.

“It is one of the first things I look for in an individual, related to competence.”

Call to Adventure

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“We finished the year in fine form,” Yolanda announced. “We met all of our goals with some to spare”.

“Good, now what?” I asked.

“We’re going to have a party,” she smiled.

“Yes, and then what?” I pressed.

You’re never happy, are you?” Yolanda pushed back. “I know where you are going with this.”

“Arriving at your destination is the end, and it is fine to celebrate the mark. But what is your journey? What’s next? That is the call to adventure.”

Multiple Paths

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“Stop with the frantic heroic efforts,” I said. “That is supervisor strategy. You’re a manager, now. Your strategy is a system focus. Stop working harder and longer and start working smarter. How can you see the work as a system?”

“You mean starting with when we get the work order from sales?” Paula wanted to know.

“That’s the way your team sees the work,” I disagreed. “As the manager, you have a larger scope than the team. You know the work starts way before the team gets it. The work starts back in sales, informal discussions about unsigned contracts in the hopper. Your system has to account for all the anticipated work volume AND the unanticipated variability in the work volume.”

“I can sit in on the sales meeting and get some visibility on projects in the works,” Paula nodded. “But, then what happens when the project gets delayed or completely scuttled?”

“Variability means variable,” I replied. “As the manager, you have to make contingency plans, multiple paths to the goal, anticipate what might happen and be ready to call an audible. A system not only has to account for the same characteristics of every project, but also has to account for the individual nuances that are different about every project.”

What Holds You Hostage?

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“You can either work on the plan the Board expects, and will not object to, or you can think differently about a new destination that is more important,” I said.

“But, I operate at the pleasure of the Board,” Kylie objected. “They write my paycheck. They expect solid quarterly results. I cannot turn in a plan based on a whim.”

“Then, your thinking has to be more than a whim,” I prodded. “Until then, you are hostage to the normal, predictable expectations that makes your Board comfortable. And, when they are comfortable, you are comfortable, and nothing remarkable will be accomplished.”

“Thinking this way sounds dangerous, a bit risky. If I do what you suggest, the Board might reject my plan and me along with it.”

“Then, you will no longer be a hostage,” I nodded.

“I might also be without a job,” Kylie appeared nervous.

“Think about this question,” I countered. “What moves would you have to make to double the revenues in your company in the next 12 months?”

“That would be impossible,” Kylie pushed back.

“Maybe, maybe not. The point is not to double your revenue, but to examine the moves you might make to do it. What might you explore?”

The Frame of the Plan

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“You set me on a path to think more clearly about the future in our planning,” Kylie informed me. “But what I am thinking, might not be finished in the timeframe of this plan.”

“Extraordinary achievement is not the goal, which may be outside of the timeframe of your plan. Extraordinary achievement is a way of life. It is the journey toward the goal.”

“But my Board wants me to have a plan for next year, in fact, they want me to have a plan for next quarter,” Kylie was stumped.

“Yes, to achieve something extraordinary, your company has to be in a healthy state. Next quarter requires solid action. But, if all you ever think about is short term results, eventually your success will be short termed. If all you ever do is the minimum, pretty soon, your minimum becomes your maximum.”

New Patterns

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“A blank sheet doesn’t give me much guidance,” Kylie announced.

“Agreed,” I replied. “But if you are going to create unconventional results, you have to think differently. Creativity is all about the future. If we could be creative simply by thinking about the past, we would all be successful. But, we’re not. Only those who imagine the future will create it.”

“I am still stuck with a blank sheet,” Kylie repeated.

“You are very good at analysis. Think of all the elements that might impact your future, things like market trends, regulation, labor, technology. Think about where those are headed, what is their direction? What events might bend their path? Then what happens? Draw those trajectories onto the edge of your blank sheet. See where they intersect.”

“My blank sheet isn’t blank anymore,” Kylie smiled. “In fact, it is become cluttered with new patterns.”

Calm

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“But, there were reasons that the team didn’t hit their output target. Materials were late, a machine broke down, and Fred didn’t show up for work,” Dalton explained. “Ever since I got promoted from supervisor to manager, it seems like everything lands on me.”

“Indeed it does. How does that feel?” I asked.

“I fell overwhelmed. There are so many more moving parts. And, my manager expects me to anticipate and prevent things going wrong.”

“So, what do you think is causing your distress?” I prodded.

“It’s my manager, all the stuff that is going on around me,” Dalton commiserated.

“And, how do you feel about that?” I continued.

“Frozen. I don’t know what to do next. When I was a supervisor, I just had to react and fix. But, now, fixing doesn’t happen fast enough. There is too much going on,” Dalton breathed.

“How do you find calm?”

Dalton stopped. “Calm?”

“Sometimes you have to slow down, so you can go fast. How do you find calm?”

Act of Creation

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From the Ask Tom mailbag –

Question:
I see the guidelines for creating a vision, but it seems a little far-fetched. Actually, I think most vision statements are far-fetched. They are too vague, or too warm and fuzzy. They describe a world that doesn’t exist.

Response:
Exactly, a world that doesn’t exist. Planning is about creating the future. And you are right, most vision statements are too vague. A vision statement should describe a specific point in time and should be detailed, rather than vague. Whenever I write a plan, my vision statement is often the longest part of the whole plan. It is detailed in its description of how things look and how things work. The more descriptive the vision, the easier the rest of planning steps flow.