Tag Archives: scenario planning

Compared to What?

“We finally nailed down all the details. I think we understand our situation. We understand the players and all the pieces,” Sebastian declared.

“Compared to what?” I asked.

“What do you mean, compared to what?” he wanted to know.

“Just because you have a collection of assembled facts doesn’t tell you much, except what may be behind you in time. How does this collection of data help you get where you want to go? How does your understanding of the current situation prepare you for the destination? Who are the players now and who are the players that will be with you when you arrive? What gifts and contributions exist in your players relative to the obstacles you will encounter? And, all the pieces? You never know all the pieces.”

Certainty or Readiness

“But, I want my plan to be realistic,” Tyler protested. “I want to think about the most likely scenario, and set in place the steps to meet our objectives.”

“Yes, but the most likely scenario rarely happens,” I replied. “Planning is all about readiness. Your realistic plan may be wrong, and the steps you set in place may lead you down a path of futility.”

“But I still have to have a plan, don’t I?”

“Yes, a plan that considers a number of scenarios, with contingencies and alternate paths to the goal. A plan is less about certainty and more about readiness.”

Scenario Planning

“You had a pretty good year, last year,” I said. “What was your secret?”

“It was a solid plan, flawlessly executed,” Roberto flatly stated with a smile.

“I know that’s not true,” I replied. “I mean, I know you had a plan, but, that’s not what happened.”

Roberto’s smile turned into a grin. “Your observation is correct. We didn’t have a plan. We had four plans. We took the two largest variables that would impact our business and played them out in four quadrants. We played each variable up and each variable down in combination. At the time, what we thought would happen was very far from what actually happened. If we had not had three alternate scenarios, we would have been sunk.”

“And this next year?” I asked.

“Same. We thought we were finally getting back to normal, then Ukraine, protests in China and Iran, now a looming rail strike. You have to plan for contingencies, not just what you think will happen.”

A tip of the hat to Gideon Malherbe.