Category Archives: Decision Making

Hidden Over-Production

The good news was that we had stumbled on the problem early. Sam arrived in Corina’s office about two minutes after the phone call.

“I thought something was up when I was down here a couple of weeks ago,” he reported. “I figured there must have been some snafu in shipping that was causing a bottleneck, and I had some fires somewhere else, so I hoped that shipping would figure it out on their own.”

“We figured it out,” Corina chimed in. “We put the over-production in the Fifth Street Warehouse, so we could keep working around here.”

“But, I thought we sold the Fifth Street Warehouse,” Sam interrupted.

“Almost. But I talked to the Real Estate Department and they hadn’t had any serious offers, the listing had just expired and they were actually glad that we needed the space to put the inventory.”

Sam looked especially troubled. “Corina, I need you to gather the data, the real data on what we have in the warehouse, and your current production rates. We need to do some thinking about this. Let’s meet tomorrow at 10:00 in the conference room.”

PAR

Corina was puzzled. Her simple Cap Ex budget exercise that took her a week to prepare, now knowing it was a 15 month Time Span task, had caused her to think. That’s the point. Defining the Time Span of the task communicates the “real” complexity of the task. This was not a simple exercise. The Cap Ex budget is a complicated task and will require some deep thought, some research, some data gathering.

“Where do I start?” she asked.

“Do you remember my golf analogy?” I replied.

“You mean PAR?”

I nodded.

“P stands for Purpose, A stands for Action, R stands for Results. First I have to define the Purpose?”

I nodded again. “We cannot go any further until we define the purpose. What is the purpose of the organization?”

“The organization?” she leaned back. “But I just run the plant floor?”

“But if you just think about the plant floor, you will make wrong decisions. What is the purpose of the organization?” -TF

Allocation of Your Most Precious Resource

“Looking at the future,” Glen contended, “we are desperately looking for that new something that is going to help replace some our declining lines of business. We find something, we gear up for it, commit some people to the project, but so far, all of those projects have failed. We end up pulling the plug.”

“Who have you committed to these new projects?” I asked.

“Well, they are new projects, so we generally take those people that we can spare from our core project lines.”

“Are these your best and brightest people?”

“Well, no. Our best people are still running our core projects. But we can usually spare a couple of people from one of their teams.”

“So, you are trying to cobble together a launch team, in an untried project area, where unforeseen problems have to be detected and corrected, and you are doing this with spares?”

Decision Tree

Gregory St. Germain sits in Broward County jail because of a Decision Tree. At the city commission meeting, last night, in addition to an official commendation, my wife received more than one stern warning about citizens confronting criminals. (Link to story at the bottom of this post).

People ask me what my wife was thinking? She used a Decision Tree. In a split second, she reviewed these questions.

  • How large is the intruder? Is he bigger than me?
  • Is he moving toward me or away from me?
  • What is his mental state? Aggression? Or fear?
  • Does he show any signs of a weapon?

In a split second, the answer to all those questions was NO. The Decision Tree gave my wife the confidence (and poise) to give chase, pull the intruder off the fence and put his face in the dirt.

If the answer to any of those questions had been different, it would have changed her response.

Decision Trees can be valuable in making quick decisions, but only if you plan them in advance and train to them. Police officers and EMTs use Decision Trees all the time to govern their behavior. Managers can do the same.

Most management circumstances can be anticipated. Decision Trees can be explored in advance. Given a situation in your company, you and your team can be trained in the discipline of a Decision Tree.

How will your team respond? -TF

If you missed the story, here is the CNN link.

Whose Meeting Is It?

Adelle emerged from the conference room after two long hours of debate. She shook her head from side to side, a genuine look of despair. “I tried,” she shrugged, “but we didn’t make a whole lot of progress. What we ended up with was mostly crap.”

I had just arrived on my way to another meeting, but she had my curiosity. “What do you mean?” I asked.

“Oh, we have been trying to figure out the best way to solve this problem and there are a bunch of ideas, but we just can’t reach a consensus on which way to proceed. I am really afraid to get started until I know for sure that everyone is on board. But every time we make a compromise, other people drop off and want something different.”

“What happens to the quality of the solution every time you compromise?”

“That’s the real problem. It’s the compromising that kills it. After listening to all the input, I know what we should do and the little compromises just water it down. We might as well junk the whole project because, in this state, it will not do what the customer wants it to do.”

“Whose meeting was that that you just walked out of?” I asked.

It was Adelle’s turn to ask, “What do you mean?”

“I mean, was it the team’s meeting, or was it your meeting? Let me put it a different way. Who is your boss going to hold accountable for this decision?”

“Oh, I tried that once, blaming a decision on the team. I got the message. My boss is going to hold me accountable for the decision.”

“Then, it wasn’t a team meeting. It was YOUR meeting that the team got invited to. It is your responsibility to listen to the input, and it is also your responsibility to make the decision. And you don’t need agreement, you just need support.”

Adelle had to sit down to think about this one. -TF


Next Sales class starts January 8, 2007. www.workingsales.com
Next Leadership class starts January 22, 2007. www.workingmanagement.com

Part and Parcel

Last March, one of our subscribers in Malaysia, Rose, had a decision to make. She could have remained in her old job, or she could have stepped into this crazy world called management. Being a manager is different. Her life changed. Last week, I got this update from Rose.

“Remember me? Yeah and I’m still surviving after four months as a manager. Things seemed to be turning up not as scary as I expected.

“Anyway, I’m gaining my subordinates’ trust and the projects seemed to be progressing. I’ve implemented some new policies along the way, like implementing tighter inventory movement. My boss appreciates me for that. I’m also able to cut down on customer waiting time in our retail area by teaching key staff members how to maneuver tasks of other employees.

“Although, my direct boss seems to appreciate what I’ve done, she is quite apprehensive when I try to push for market differentiation in our consumer products. Frustrating, but I guess it’s part and parcel of life. She is instrumental in my employment and also the flood gate keeper to all the politics that try to veer into our business unit.

“But, one thing for sure, I’m feeling alive again. And powerful, occasionally, when my subordinates look to me for guidance. Anyway, although I don’t know you personally, Mr. Tom, but you have been most helpful in helping me to make up my mind four months ago. Keep up your good work. May you be blessed.”

Interesting and inspiring. My thanks to Rose for sharing her decision with us. -TF

Not a Management Technique

Rose is one of our subscribers in Malaysia. Last March, she was faced with the dilemma whether or not to take a new job as a manager. In the end, Rose took the job. After giving proper notice, she started in June.

“Remember me? Today is my second day on the job as a new manager. Wow!! Exhilarating and tough. Scares the hell out of me. But anyway, management, especially when it involves strategy at the corporate level is really something new to me! Even with an MBA, it’s not easy!

“I have to think about expanding the business and yet I can’t just do it without considering the brand’s image in the market. I can’t afford to portray the new brand into the lower segment.

“Should I think about franchising or should I get a distributor to take the new product lines into other markets.

“Still, I have to take into account the under capacity of the production department, which is also under my care. How to motivate the production line when they are so new to me? I think I’m going to have high blood pressure soon.”

So Rose took the bold step and jumped into the thick of things. It is one thing to anticipate the challenge. It is another to feel the reality of being overwhelmed. And here you come face to face understanding this is not about management techniques, this is about courage.

It is now some months since these first days in June. I heard from Rose again last week. Her update on Wednesday. -TF

Something Else is Necessary

Rose was asking for advice, clearly torn between the comfort of an existing job and the scary prospect of a new job in management. This new position would be a stretch. Perhaps her new employer saw something in Rose that even she did not see in herself. But still, it was Rose who had to make the decision. My response:

“Dilemmas are the wonderful part of life. The position you describe sounds like a big job without a lot of internal resources. That is not an altogether bad thing, because you can make decisions quickly and turn direction instantly. Not only can you make a mistake, but you can also approve it.

“It does make the problem more difficult to enter a market area where you have little technical expertise. Since you don’t have an internal sales staff, you will need to find out who can help you understand this new market and how others have gone about it. Competitors are a wonderful source of information. You can read about them, and sometimes even talk to them.

“Bottom line, you will have to go into high learning mode to find out what actions need to be followed to be successful.

“I would also have more conversation with the owner, to determine how he will measure your success. What revenues have to be achieved? What markets have to be penetrated? How many and what kinds of new products might be successful?

“I would also like to find out what the owner was impressed by? What did he find interesting about you as a candidate? He must know that you have little experience in this industry, so why did he not see that as necessary to success in the new position? It must have been something else.

“I know I have asked more questions than given advice or direction, but this is a decision you will have to make yourself. Perhaps these questions have helped to clarify things so you can make the best decision for you.” -TF
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Identifying the Deal Killers

“Alright, let’s take a vote,” Ralph directed. I was sitting in the back of the room. I watched the hands go up in favor of Ralph’s plan. There was no dissent. Meeting adjourned.

Ralph was proud, no opposition, he picked up his stuff and strutted out of the room. And that’s when the truth came out. It started as a whisper, a snide remark, and then the piling on began. As it turned out, no one was in favor of Ralph’s plan.

“What do you mean?” Ralph said as I settled into his office.

“I don’t think your plan has a chance for success,” I replied. “As you left the room, I got to thinking, wondering if your plan had covered all the bases, in fact, if it was even the right decision.”

“But, everyone voted,” Ralph protested.

I nodded. “Do you think voting is the best way to make a decision?”

“Hey, it’s how we elect a president?”

I smiled and repeated, “Do you think voting is the best way to make a decision?”

“Well, do you have a better way?” Ralph challenged.

“I was just looking at your four alternatives. You know, there were two things that were absolute deal killers and the one you picked doesn’t meet the criteria.”

“What do you mean?”

“Think about it this way, Ralph. Put up a big chart on the wall and make a quick list of all the things that absolutely, positively have to be a part of the solution. Deal killers. Then make a list of all the things that are not absolute, but would be really nice to have. Now you have two lists, absolutes and desirables.

“Take your four alternatives and put them up against the criteria and see how things shake out.”

Ralph didn’t say a word. His eyes got wide. I could see him mentally checking his quick list. “I think I need to bring the team back in the room. I think they voted for a mistake.”

I was ready to explain the process in more detail, but Ralph was already headed for the conference room. -TF


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Absolutes and Desirables

“Okay, so if I am to be accountable for the decision, I should make the decision. I get that.” Victor was still struggling to make sure he was sincerely including his team on major decisions. “But I can’t just pay lip service to team participation. That is why I had them vote in the first place.”

“Is voting the best way to make a decision?” I asked. Victor looked puzzled. I continued. “Look, you want people to truly participate in the process even though you will make the final decision. Here is what I want you to try.

“Take a flipchart and draw a vertical line down the middle. Label the left column Absolutes and label the right column Desirables. Now, ask your team to help you fill out the chart.

“For Absolutes, ask what absolutely has to happen as a result of this decision? What are the non-negotiable criteria that we have to consider when making this decision?

“For Desirables, ask what would we like to happen as a result of this decision? What are the outcomes that would be nice, that we should consider when making this decision? And which of these desirable outcomes are the most important? Have your team prioritize these.

“Victor, if you go through an analysis like this, your decision will make a lot more sense than voting. It will be based on a logical process, in which your team actively participates. This is not lip service. This is real.” -TF