I don’t watch much television, but it is difficult to escape the media’s focus on the Gulf Coast. The past few days have been filled with mud slinging about which government leader should have done what. Is there a lesson for us, as Managers, about our role in planning for our own organizations?

I thought about the distinct differences between South Florida’s (where I live) response to hurricanes and what we are seeing in New Orleans. There is no doubt that had Katrina come ashore here as a Category 4, we would have seen similar destruction, but I wonder if we would have seen the ensuing chaos.

When Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992, we learned a lot. We learned a lot about building codes and we learned a lot about preparedness. Almost every organization I work with has a detailed Hurricane Plan in writing. The path and the storm intensity trigger automatic response to take specific action based on the plan.

The plan takes the emotion out of the decision. So many Managers make their decisions based on emotion rather than strict adherence to a plan. Plans are created in the calm of foresight, to help us take action in the face of circumstances that may be chaotic or difficult to interpret.

Unfortunately, it often takes a bit of hindsight, and sometimes a devastating event to teach us the lessons of planning for the worst. -TF

PS. Please pass along the link to our “I’m-OK” message boards in the search for people displaced in Hurricane Katrina. You can read more about our site in yesterday’s post. The link is www.im-ok.org

Chase left our conversation abruptly. Across the plant floor, he had spotted a problem and rushed to make a correction. He was apologetic on his return. “Sorry, but that is why I called you today. I feel like a two armed octopus. There are eight things that need to happen, but I can only work on two problems at a time. Things get out of control about fifteen minutes into the day. And they never stop. At the end of the day, I look at my boss’ list of projects and the important things never seem to get worked on. There is always a crisis.”

“Not really,” I said. “To me, your system is working exactly the way it was designed to work.”

Chase was puzzled. “What do you mean? It’s not working at all.”

“No, it is working exactly the way it is designed to work. The design of your day’s work is to drink coffee for the first fifteen minutes, then run around the floor solving urgent problems. At the end of each day, you check the list to make sure you didn’t do anything important.”

I paused. “Not a bad design. How’s that working for you?” Chase didn’t like what he was hearing.

“If you want to change your day, you have to change your design for the day. I see about four major design changes you might want to consider, but let’s start with just one. Don’t let anyone work during the first fifteen minutes of the day. Instead have a huddle meeting around the boss’ list of important projects. That one design change will be a good start.”

How is your day designed? -TF

Rafael shrugged, “Thought we were below the radar. Thought nobody was watching us, much less targeting our customers.” Things had tightened up in Rafael’s market. Indeed, they were a small player with giant competitors.

“What is your estimated market share?” I asked.

“You don’t understand, we are a niche player, probably less than one percent of the market,” retorted Rafael.

I had to be straight. Rafael was not a niche player, he was a small player. His one percent market share was feeding off the falling crumbs from larger competitors. That was fine when times were good. Answer the following question: What happens to your one percent market share, when the market shrinks three percent?

Understand this. The twelve month rate of change in US industrial production has peaked and is currently beginning a downward descent. The US economy is slowing. Is your market shrinking? Are you prepared? -TF

So you attended that tactical planning meeting. Everything was high fives, energy in the room. Man, you were going to tackle the world and solve the most dramatic problems your company faces. There were enough ideas to paper the wall. The facilitator ran out of high priced ink in his Marks-a-Lot.

But now, you are two weeks down the road and nothing has changed. Not one iota. What the hell happened?

I see companies get so involved with brainstorming that they fail to become judgmental enough to come up with the ONE BEST IDEA that will solve the problem. All the ideas seem so creative, the team cannot say no. Rather than adopt one strategy, rejecting all the others, and following through, the team languishes in the Jacuzzi of ideas.

Brainstorming, to be effective, requires the team to suspend judgment and accept all ideas. That’s perfect for brainstorming. But, sooner or later, a real strategy must develop that requires analysis, judgmental thinking, rejection of marginal ideas, combining strengths of related ideas and surgically carving away the ineffective positions.

Identifying the ONE BEST IDEA is a separate step from brainstorming, and absolutely necessary for effective action. -TF

“Houston, I think we are lost.”

“Roger, that. How far have you traveled since the last checkpoint?”

“Houston, we have traveled for six hours since our last transmission. Did we pass a checkpoint?”

“Spaceprobe II, we do not show any checkpoints in your area. How far off course are you?”

“Houston, we do not know the nearest checkpoints and we do not know how far off course we are.”

“Roger that, Spaceprobe II.”

“Houston, do we need to make a course correction?”

“Spaceprobe II, it would seem you need to make a course correction.”

“Houston, what course correction should we make?”

“Spaceprobe II, can you reverse your course and retrace your current flightpath?”

“Negatory, Houston. Our on-board computers only track spacecraft movement in relation to the target destination.”

“Spaceprobe II. What is your target destination?”

“Houston, we do not know our target destination. It was never discussed at the meeting on Friday.”

“Roger, that. Spaceprobe II, have you checked your flightplan documents?”

“Houston, we seem to have no flightplan documents.”

“Spaceprobe II, then how do you know how far off course you are?”

“Houston, I think we are lost.”

“Roger that.” -TF

One more month and they would have been doomed. Luckily, the economy came back, margins thickened (just enough) and their main competitor finally got off of their back. The past three years had been a marketplace gauntlet.

Now, Benjamin could breathe just long enough to figure out what happened, most importantly, how to position his company so this would not happen again. Benjamin’s stomach lining could not take another economic downturn.

Three years ago, Benjamin’s company enjoyed a distant third position in the market, behind two strong competitors. The competitors were in nearby states, close, yet far enough away to be out of sight (and out of mind). As the economy began to squeeze, Benjamin noticed he was losing small contracts to his out-of-state rivals. When things got tighter, the size of those lost contracts got bigger. Thinking he was on top of his game, Benjamin smiled when he saw his down line competitors having trouble. One filed bankruptcy, another closed facilities, the last just stopped doing business. Benjamin did not see what was happening, nor did he realize that he was the next target.

When times are flush, lots of competitors can co-exist, even the small dogs can live off of the crumbs dropped by the bigger companies. But when times get tough, the bigger companies cannot afford to see their revenues drop, so they get aggressive.

Who do they attack? Number one does NOT attack number two. Number one attacks number six, the weakest and easiest target. With number six out of the way, both number one and number two begin to work their way up the food chain, systematically decimating the market.

The lesson for Benjamin. Always position yourself as number one or number two in your defined marketplace. When times get tough, anything less leaves your company vulnerable to having your lunch eaten. -TF

“I think planning is a waste of time!” decried Roger. I was not sure if he was just trying to get out of the assignment, or if he truly had a bad experience with planning. Roger continued, “We plan, but we never stick to the plan. There are too many unknowns to think about. All kinds of things can happen that we cannot predict. We might find an opportunity that was completely unforeseen that renders our plan obsolete. It takes too much time; I don’t want to do it. I mean, it’s not that I don’t want to do it, I just don’t want to write it down. Things change too quickly.”

Enough. I stop him. “What are the benefits of planning? If you do your job well, what are the positive things that come from a written plan? If you do not have a plan, then how does your team know what to work on next?”

Roger thought for a minute, “I just have to be specific about what I want them to do next.”

“Do you realize how much pressure that puts on you to constantly monitor their activities, to constantly be devising the next task, and the next task? Do you realize that no one is watching your backside because the team has no understanding of where the project his headed?”

The downfall of most managers is the incredible stress they place themselves under. The team who does not understand the direction of travel MUST depend on the manager for every step and move. Problems cannot be anticipated by the team because they don’t know from which direction the arrows will arrive. This leaves the manager in a never-winning battle to anticipate everything and solve every problem. This is not where I would want to be. -TF

If I did not allow you to come to work tomorrow, what tasks would your team find to work on? I get a variety of responses, but they all come down to this: Tomorrow, they would work pretty much on the same things they worked on today.

And if I held you back another day, what tasks would your team find to work on, and what methods would they use? The responses continue to distill: They would work pretty much on the same things as today, using the same methods as today.

Good. Now, how long could your team continue to do that without you? Be honest.

Your team could continue to work on the same tasks using the same methods for a long time. How long? Exactly up to the very moment when…

Exactly up to the very moment when something changes. In that instant, you, as a manager, suddenly have a job. Management is about helping your team adapt to change. In fact, if nothing in your market, in your industry, in your state, in your town, with technology ever changes, then your company does not need you.

The more change you see in your market, in your industry, with technology, the more management you need. -TF

Though his head felt it, the room was not spinning. The muffled conversation was screaming. Lenny was sure he was about to pass out.

In the six months since he was promoted, things had become increasingly chaotic. “When the path is clear, anyone can be the leader,” I told him. “It is in the middle of ambiguity that leadership emerges. The person who paints the clearest picture of reality will emerge as the leader.”

What is this “reality” stuff, and why is it so important? Because reality always wins. You can identify it and deal with it, or ignore it and allow it to eat your lunch.

What is reality in your company? It’s the stuff that keeps you from achieving your goals. It is the head trash that distracts you from effective action, which diverts you from your purpose. Purpose is a good place to start the reality conversation. Purpose helps to make sense of the chaos, creates a context for the noise. Purpose allows us to see clearer patterns of behavior. If you are a Manager and the world is swirling, sit down with your team and have a talk about purpose. -TF