Are we in a recession or not? The S&P just made a new record high. The consultants response is always a handy – it depends.

If you are not paying attention, a recession could pass you by without hope of your own recovery. Even large scale macro-economic contractions spread the pain in different places and exert more pressure at different times. And, the winds could come from both the market side and the supply side.

In the sweltering heat of the summer, you would think a swimming pool would be a good investment. Indeed it was during COVID, when everyone was stuck at home. There were market pressures on other industries, but swimming pools were all the rage. But, now, the winds have shifted. According to a POOL report, the construction cost (materials and labor have risen 72%, from an average of $43k to $72k. In 2023, there was a 23% decline in new pool construction and POOL expects another 20% decline in 2024.

Are we in a recession or not? It depends. What indicators are you looking at, external and internal? When is your turn to go into the tank? Don’t get caught unaware.