Tag Archives: recession

The Silent Recession

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Are we in a recession or not? The S&P just made a new record high. The consultants response is always a handy – it depends.

If you are not paying attention, a recession could pass you by without hope of your own recovery. Even large scale macro-economic contractions spread the pain in different places and exert more pressure at different times. And, the winds could come from both the market side and the supply side.

In the sweltering heat of the summer, you would think a swimming pool would be a good investment. Indeed it was during COVID, when everyone was stuck at home. There were market pressures on other industries, but swimming pools were all the rage. But, now, the winds have shifted. According to a POOL report, the construction cost (materials and labor have risen 72%, from an average of $43k to $72k. In 2023, there was a 23% decline in new pool construction and POOL expects another 20% decline in 2024.

Are we in a recession or not? It depends. What indicators are you looking at, external and internal? When is your turn to go into the tank? Don’t get caught unaware.

Trouble in River City

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In the midst of Covid 19, we had an earthquake (5.7) yesterday here in Salt Lake City. As we look forward, evidence of economic contraction is appearing, for some, aggressively attacking. This is not a time for panic, but a time for rethinking.

Lee Thayer, (Leadership 2004), speaks about necessity and its importance in the workplace. The entrepreneur, who starts a business, only puts in place that which is necessary. Only necessary equipment is purchased. Only necessary people are hired.

As time advances, and the business becomes more complex, necessity becomes more complex. And management decisions are made to bring on more infrastructure to support that complexity. Sometimes those decisions are accurate; sometimes those decisions miss the mark.

During this rethink time, look around. Re-think your work-flow. Re-think your personnel structure. Carefully examine what your customer wants, to make sure what you deliver is necessary.

Some of you are already hurting, do not give up hope, rethink. Some of you are thriving, don’t think you have dodged a bullet.