Rafael shrugged, “Thought we were below the radar. Thought nobody was watching us, much less targeting our customers.” Things had tightened up in Rafael’s market. Indeed, they were a small player with giant competitors.

“What is your estimated market share?” I asked.

“You don’t understand, we are a niche player, probably less than one percent of the market,” retorted Rafael.

I had to be straight. Rafael was not a niche player, he was a small player. His one percent market share was feeding off the falling crumbs from larger competitors. That was fine when times were good. Answer the following question: What happens to your one percent market share, when the market shrinks three percent?

Understand this. The twelve month rate of change in US industrial production has peaked and is currently beginning a downward descent. The US economy is slowing. Is your market shrinking? Are you prepared? -TF